A short time ago the Park City Board of realtors released the 2017 Q1 statistics. Q1 is usually our slowest quarter, but not this year. Single Family Homes have been the most active segment of our market. Overall there was a 23% increase in homes sold vs Q1 2016 (231) and a 39% increase in volume ($319,871,889). The Park City limits and the Snyderville Basin both showed a 22% increase in quantity sold. Park City's volume was up 22% to $106,068,548 and the Snyderville Basin increased 29% to $123,371,655. Prices of single family homes continued to rise. The median price of single family homes sold in the first quarter increased to $2,090,000 within Park City limits, and to $987,000 in the Snyderville Basin. The Heber Valley was relatively stable with volume of $30,283,550 and a median price of $435,000. Condominiums were even more interesting than single family homes with Park City volume up 117% to $150,807,606 and quantity sold up 71%. Median price was up 26% to $929,500. That dramatic increase can be attributed to long awaited closings of Stein Eriksen Residences after several years of construction. The Snyderville Basin reported activity was relatively stable with volume of $46,145,219 and median price of $641,500. I believe the Board of Realtors Q1 numbers DO NOT reflect what is really happening in our market. Why? because the report ignores the reservations and contracts entered into by buyers for new projects. Just as the decisions made by buyers 3 years ago to enter into contracts to purchase Stein Eriksen Residence units are now affecting 2017 Q1 data, the buyers from our just completed ski season made it clear that new condo product was their choice over older condo resales. To show that effect, I looked at what was missing from the condo sales reported at the Canyons in Q1. That report showed 32 sales with an average price of $923,380 for a total volume of $29,548,145 - a 7% decline from Q1 2016 - not very impressive in terms of the "Vail Effect". But what happens if we add the dollar volume and quantity contracted for or reserved (buyer purchase decisions) for just two of the new Canyons Village projects?
Reported sales: Quantity Sold - 32 $ Volume - $29,548,145 Avg Sale Price - $943,380
Apex (contracts) 34 $75,529,000 $2,221,441 $795/SF
Lift (reservations) 54 $65,095,000 $1,205,463 $818/SF
Revised Total 120 $170,172,145 $1,418,101
I realize that treating reservations and contracts in Q1 as sales in Q1 is imprecise, and leaves out other similar but smaller projects. This broad estimate of total activity may make MLS rule makers frown, but it does better reflect what we experienced in terms of activity in the Canyons village in Q1. In fact it may be conservative since it does not count the back up offers behind current reservations. These modified numbers would have resulted in a report that said the quantity sold was +316% vs. (16%), volume sold was +535% vs. (7%), and the average sale was +139% vs. (8%).
These numbers should give owners of older resale condo's food for thought. As an example the 8 resale condos at Arrowleaf in Empire Pass built in 2007/2008 have asking prices averaging $1,052/SF, 6 resales at Silver Strike Lodge average $1,013/SF and 9 resales at Grand Lodge average $1,037/SF. The simple truth is that a new Mercedes sells for more than a 2007 Mercedes of the same model no matter how well the older vehicle has been maintained and how few miles on its odometer, The next question to be answered is why the new luxury product coming to market today deserves a premium to the luxury product of the 2005-2008 boom years. Stay tuned.
